

A quote from Peter L. Bernstein, who recently passed away:
"How could so many have failed to see that all the known parameters were bursting
apart?...It was precisely our massive inputs and intimate intercommunication that
made it impossible for most of us to get to the exits before it was too late."
He was talking about the stock collapse of in 1974, but of course this could be now or
a few years from now. Bernstein was an advocate of a very simple concept promoted
by The Black Swan and other books.
He put it in simple terms, "We simply do not know what the future holds." this is a
powerful statement, and disappointing to many marketers and strategic planners.
Why? Because it means that carefully laid out strategies can be made worthless at any
time.
Does this mean you should not plan? Of course not. But it means that one needs
more than one or two plans. Not a strategy, but strategies that present alternative in the
simple event that we are wrong.
Bernstein's observation that oversupply of data and analysis prevents us from seeing
things clearly (and more important - quickly) is a valuable lesson that is difficult to learn
from, in today's business world.






I live in the small town of west Chester, Pa. Over the past year or so,
several highly original food purveyors have opened up in town. Each
shop offers something decidedly out of the ordinary.
By marketing to a specific subset of shoppers, they are attempting to
speak to people who are fans of a type of food, or else expose them to
a brand in a unique way.
I recently visited the interesting shop, a Taste of Olive. The walls are
lined with metal vats, each containing a different type of exotic olive oil
or vinegar. There may be a virgin Italian oil infused with intense Tuscan
herbs, for example, or a balsamic vinegar with essence of tangerine.
If you love food and cooking, you will
quickly get caught up in the shop
offerings - little pill-type cups are set
out to allow you to taste every oil.
You are encourage to mix oils and
vinegars, to experience the possible
dressings or marinades you can
concoct.
When ready, you open the tap and fill
your bottle - the staff seals it like a
precious split of wine.
You get credit for returning clean
bottles for a new purchase.
Nearby is Eclat - a chocolatier run by Christopher
Curtin. Mr. Curtin studied chocolate making in
Europe, most notably Germany and Cologne.
The result is a shop that sells malt whisky
chocolate balls, Sizhuan-spiced squares, and
dark wafers with pink peppercorns trapped inside
them.
The staff wears handsome black chef cook
outfits, and the quality of the confections are
wonderful.
My last stop of the day was at a wine bar run by the Kreutz Creek Winery, located in Chester
County. Kreutz Creek has BBQ and wine festivals like many local producers, and wine
bars, while nice, are nothing new in wine marketing.
...Until the woman behind the bar explained that they offered a "BYOF". A what? "Bring Your
Own Food," she explained.
For a few dollars, you can sit at a table with take out, home prepared, or delivered food and
sample all the wines that Kreutz Creek makes. On many nights, they offer live music while
you sip. Of course, they hope you become familiar with their offerings and pick up a few
bottles.I bet plenty do.
The economy has seen better days - but it is in times like these that great marketing ideas
stand out, and capture the public's imagination. That's what marketing is all about.



I travel overseas a lot. So I sometimes use instant coffee in lands that are coffee-challenged. See that Starbucks is in the
powered coffee business, I brought some along. It tastes OK, but will never be a substitute for the real thing.
No doubt many people will be up in arms over this. I certainly have my doubts about this development. After all, SB is all
about the experience of having them custom brewing drink for you. I am in Vietnam at the moment, and the room has a
special ceramic Vietnam coffee maker with cup and plunger. - an interesting instant coffee experience, compared to
opening a packet from SB. The economy is lousy, but that is no reason to toss away a unique marketing advantage.

This spot should win an award. While not totally original, it
is especially well done, with an excellent sound track.
This is a feel-good advertisement that is quite effective.
These days, it's easy to see how people feel about an ad. All
you need to is go to YouTube, see if it is posted already, and
see what people have to say about it.
(As an aside) - imagine - we can see an ad, critique it, see
it over and over, and send it to others , if we so choose.
Truly, this is a marketer's dream come true.
Click on the image at left to see the Amex commercial.

Barnes and Noble sold out of their Nook e-reader before the Thanksgiving
holiday. Now their stores have entrance displays manned by clerks who can only
give you literature on the device.
They expect to have a supply in on Dec. 6th, and that stock will last less than 24
hours. Pre-orders will be delivered in January.
The Sony Daily Edition ($399 wireless version) is now out of stock for the
holidays. Although still costly, a little cumbersome regarding download options,
and not even in color, e-readers are taking off.
Estimates of 2 million sold this season have been revised to 3 million,
although no one knows what would happen if there was stock.
The obvious demand opens up counter-trend possibilities - a basic $99
e-reader for the masses (look for this in 2010), and high-end color does-it-all
product (like the Apple iPad coming next year.






I use Roku. That's the box that costs $100 that wirelessly
downloads Netflix films to your TV. Last year, the service added
Amazon movie rentals for $1 less than cable, typically.
Now they have just added a host of 'apps' (just think how Apple
dominates our thinking now!). These include services like
Pandora and access to my Facebook and Flickr photo albums.
More exiting to me is a growing host of content - dozens of video
podcasts on technology, news analysis, entertainment.
This means that the promise of 'narrowcasting' - programming
for small audiences who highly value specific content - is really
arriving. I can watch or listen to this programming on my
computers or television sets (and without a doubt soon on my
phone).
The opportunities for enjoying (and sometimes paying for)
content that really interests me is growing. And producers of this
content can now earn a living from an audience willing to pay for
unique services.
This is just the beginning - and an exiting time for media.



The WSJ had an interesting candy article. Candy used to
be regional - lack of transportation and refrigeration meant that
every city had favorite candy bars that people grew up with.
One author figures that between the World Wars, 30,000
brands of candy were introduced in the US. The growth of super
brands, created by Forrest Mars and Milton Hershey, ended
most of those choices - they simply were not efficient to market.
How many people wanted a Chicken Dinner bar? (thankfully
bereft of actual chicken, but what a brand!)
Some regionals have survived - it is popular to discredit
Chris Anderson's theory of The Long Tail. But I believe that it
holds water - it is just that the Tail is not profitable enough for
mega corportations, but just fine for small producers.
Which is why you can go to www.candydirect.com and buy
yourself a box of Idaho Spuds or Twin Bing.The success of the
tail remains relative to the producer.


I recently saw a performance by Cameron Carpenter. Many critics believe him to
be the world's greatest organist. Maybe one of the best ever. His choice of material is
wide-ranging, from Bach to Kate Bush. His playing is pyrotechnical.
Oh yes, he dresses in stark black and white, and wears Swarovski crystals on his
shirts and shoes. The glitter makes it easy to see his racing hands and feet but also
add a touch of the irreverent to his mostly classical performances.
This made me think of Lady Gaga. As Stefani Germanotta, she was a lovely young
singer of tunes that she composed (look at her early performances on YouTube). But
here career went nowhere. Now she is outrageous, and a star.
Live classical music is dying all over the USA, but Carpenter is selling out his
performances. A little marketing goes a long way, and as long as the performer has
real talent, then I don't mind if they go over the top a bit to get our attention.